Good afternoon investors,
What an incredible week for the “All In” portfolio. The portfolio was up 15.40% this week and currently is up 121.79% for the entire year.
For subscribers who missed it, I decided to start covering my “All In” portfolio. The idea of this portfolio is to drop 100% of my entire Robinhood account into my top investment idea. If my research is accurate, the “All In” portfolio should rapidly compound throughout the next few years.
The All In portfolio has been invested in one single coal name since August 4th, 2021 when I penned an article to subscribers titled “I have started to buy this company hand over fist”. Since the article the stock has re-rated over 88%, hitting my low-ball price target in the matter of one month.
I think Company X can re-rate to $35-50/share and once 2022 production rates are established, assuming they lock in current level pricing, the stock could very well run to $75-100/share. - Written August 4th, 2021
When I wrote that article one month ago I was assuming the price per ton Company X would get be around $115/ton (a very conservative/low ball price per ton). With $71/ton in cost, Company X would be spitting out $44/ton in mine level margins, which equated to 50-100% upside at the valuation at the time. One month later the margin per ton is pushing $150-200 (depending on where the coal is sold).
Margin pricing at these levels would equal $80-95/share in EPS for 2022, should pricing get locked in at current spot. With a share price just north of $50/share, the valuation metrics are insanely absurd.
My plans are to hold Company X at the current price giving the insanely cheap forward looking valuation, despite the near 100% run-up in less than a month. Company X is my top idea and by far largest position.
If you want access to my top idea in the “All In” portfolio you can subscribe to the premium version of the newsletter for only $10/month.
New Stock Idea
I wrote up a new stock idea for subscribers this week. If you missed it you can get access here.
This stock is not new to subscribers. If you have been reading my newsletter for a while, you might remember me writing up this stock back in April, calling it a reopening play with over 100% upside.
My original article on that company worked out extremely well, seeing the stock more than double in a couple months time. After selling out I have continued to monitor the price and the business model.
Recently the stock sold off on weak guidance for the back half of 2021. After digging into the guidance and refreshing my model I decided to take a second bite from this apple. I think the stock could potentially double again, and with a current activist shareholder I think we could see the company “at play” over the next few months.
The stock will likely continue to be soft going into Q3 earnings given the weak guidance. I plan to use any material weakness in the stock price to aggressively average down.
Disclaimer: The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. All statements and expressions herein are the sole opinion of the author or paid advertiser.
Alpha Letter is a publisher of financial information, not an investment advisor. We do not provide personalized or individualized investment advice or information that is tailored to the needs of any particular recipient.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED ON THIS WEBSITE IS NOT AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, AND DOES NOT PURPORT TO BE AND DOES NOT EXPRESS ANY OPINION AS TO THE PRICE AT WHICH THE SECURITIES OF ANY COMPANY MAY TRADE AT ANY TIME. THE INFORMATION AND OPINIONS PROVIDED HEREIN SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS SPECIFIC ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF ANY INVESTMENT DECISION. INVESTORS SHOULD MAKE THEIR OWN INVESTIGATION AND DECISIONS REGARDING THE PROSPECTS OF ANY COMPANY DISCUSSED HEREIN BASED ON SUCH INVESTORS’ OWN REVIEW OF PUBLICLY AVAILABLE INFORMATION AND SHOULD NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN.
No statement or expression of opinion, or any other matter herein, directly or indirectly, is an offer or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or financial instruments mentioned.
Any projections, market outlooks or estimates herein are forward looking statements and are inherently unreliable. They are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events that will occur. Other events that were not taken into account may occur and may significantly affect the returns or performance of the securities discussed herein. The information provided herein is based on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and the publisher undertakes no obligation to correct, update or revise the information in this document or to otherwise provide any additional material.
The publisher, its affiliates, and clients of the a publisher or its affiliates may currently have long or short positions in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, or may have such a position in the future (and therefore may profit from fluctuations in the trading price of the securities). To the extent such persons do have such positions, there is no guarantee that such persons will maintain such positions.
Neither the publisher nor any of its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information contained herein.
By using the Site or any affiliated social media account, you are indicating your consent and agreement to this disclaimer and our terms of use. Unauthorized reproduction of this newsletter or its contents by photocopy, facsimile or any other means is illegal and punishable by law.
For Full Terms of Use Click HERE. For the Privacy Policy Click HERE.
alphaletter.co (“Alpha”) is a website owned and operated by Substack. Alpha is paid fees by the companies that make investment offerings on this website. Be aware that payment of these fees may put Alpha in a conflict of interest with the investor. By accessing this website or any page thereof, you agree to be bound by the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy, in effect at the time you access this website or any page thereof. The Terms of Use and Privacy Policy may be amended from time to time. Nothing on this website shall constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for, any securities to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation is against the law or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Alpha is not an underwriter, broker-dealer, Title III crowdfunding portal or a valuation service and does not engage in any activities requiring any such registration. Alpha does not provide advice on investments or structure transactions. Offerings made under Regulation A under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act") are available to U.S. investors who are “accredited investors” as defined by Rule 501 of Regulation D under the Securities Act well as non-accredited investors, who are subject to certain investment limitations as set forth in Regulation A under the Securities Act. In order to invest in Regulation A offerings, investors may be asked to fill out a certification and provide necessary documentation as proof of your income and/or net worth to verify that you are qualified to invest in offerings posted on this website. All securities listed on this site are being offered by, and all information included on this site is the responsibility of, the applicable issuer of such securities. Alpha does not verify the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of any information. Neither Alpha nor any of its officers, directors, agents and employees makes any warranty, express or implied, of any kind whatsoever related to the adequacy, accuracy, valuations of securities or completeness of any information on this site or the use of information on this site. Neither Alpha nor any of its directors, officers, employees, representatives, affiliates or agents shall have any liability whatsoever arising from any error or incompleteness of fact, or lack of care in the preparation of, any of the materials posted on this website. Investing in securities, especially those issued by start-up companies, involves substantial risk. investors should be able to bear the loss of their entire investment and should make their own determination of whether or not to make any investment based on their own independent evaluation and analysis
Are you still buying Company X? I bought it when you initially came out with it and continued to buy in the $30’s. Now that it’s into the $50’s, are you still buying? Thanks
Hey I’m getting billed twice on my account. How do I get this fixed?
I have paid for a yearly subscription as of yesterday but today I got tagged for the $10 per month bill. Customer service or contacts to fix this appear to be nonexistent. Help!