What a crazy past few weeks it as been. To re-cap, 2021 was the best investing year of my career. I was up over 50% for the year as stocks continued to rebound from the COVID-19 fallout from 2020. The deal flow in the public markets went something like this:
You get excited because you find an undervalued stock.
After doing all of your due diligence the stock goes up 50% and you miss your chance because you were being a dork trying to build a multi-segment discounted cash flow model.
You get mad and give up.
One day later you find another stock that looks incredibly cheap.
The stock rockets up the next day and you miss out.
That is pretty much how my 2021 investing career went. If I was not quick enough on my due diligence, I missed a ton of good opportunities as the market re-rated undervalued stocks extremely quickly.
Thankfully, I can bust out a model in a day or so and get up to speed on how a company generates free cash flow, to get a general sense on what those cash flows should ultimately be worth.
Given my investing success in 2021, I thought 2022 would see a slowdown. So far, that has not been the case:
One of my top positions sold a segment and executed a $12 dollar per share special dividend. The stock continues to trade at basement level valuations. I have continued to add as I think the rest of the business is up for play and could be sold over the next couple of years.
Another top position announced strategic alternatives with plans to sell themselves by April. The stock has moved sharply up on the news but it still remains a core position as the valuation is just stupid cheap here.
Finally, my largest position has begun to move, up around 50% over the past couple weeks. I continue to hold this position as the upside could be even greater as fourth quarter results are released which I think will be a large cash generative quarter. This stock is in “The All In” portfolio which is up 77.55% in less than a year.
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Are u still in on SBSAA?