The period between 2020, 2021, 2022 and beyond will be written about in history books our grandchildren will read about. The Great Pandemic and the potential (hopefully not) multi-country war that started in Europe and spread like wildfire through the free world. And everything beyond March 2022 that has yet to occur. We are living and making the history that will be in the books to come.
As an American capitalist I use the fear of the crowd to make large and unpopular bets in the financial markets. I buy fear and sell into greed. I love the beaten and bruised sectors as that is where real value is found. Value so deep that if I am wrong, I won’t lose much money, but if I am right, I could make a killing.
When these “unprecedented times” occur and history is in the making, that is when some of the best opportunities present themselves to the American Capitalist.
Most of my day to day time is spent thinking about fear induced themes that I can profit on. A lot of the fear I see in today’s market is embedded around inflation, the supply chain and companies who profited widely during COVID who are comping up against a tough year in 2022.
Sectors and industries I see opportunities in are:
Assets in Eastern Europe
Some of these industries probably sound familiar to most Alpha Letter Pro subscribers (energy and retail in particular). Other industries are new as I haven’t written much about them. Then there are the others that are so controversial that I have only written about them selectively.
Each of these industries is in a different stage of the business cycle. Furniture in particular is in the depths of a downturn as shipping costs are so high most furniture companies are not generating strong cash flows. Energy on the other hand is the hottest sector in the world right now as prices have skyrocketed and operating leverage has kicked in significantly. Retail is a hit or miss as some companies are managing inflation and the supply chain well and others are getting squeezed.
Boom or bust, I am monitoring these industries as I think the macroeconomic themes embedded here are extremely interesting. Alpha Letter Pro subscribers have see my research on many of these industries and will get first look at future research on companies that I am currently underwriting. Almost all companies I write about are ones that I own. I have skin in the game and eat my own cake.
I hope everyone has a great start to their week. And just to be upfront and clear, if tech ever gets to the point of massive pessimism, I will be there with a buy order, scooping up the once high flyers of the past two decades.
A word from Alts
Let me guess: Your portfolio has been getting hammered lately?
Yeah, us too. The S&P is down. The NASDAQ is down. And crypto is down.
But did you know that farmland is completely unaffected? Or that comic books are way up? Or that tickets are mooning?
That's why we've been reading Alts. These guys analyze the heck out of alternative investment markets, and you reap the rewards.
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Oh, and and get this: They don't just track these markets, they are actually crushing them. While everything else in the world was down last week, their own recommendations were up 1.4%.
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Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway buys $1.5B more Occidental stock week after $3B purchase (SEC)
JD.com to buy courier company Deppon Logistics in $1.4B deal (Seeking Alpha)
SoftBank's Vision Fund sells $1.04B of Coupang stake (Seeking Alpha)
Videogame sales drop for fourth month amid hardware slowdown (Seeking Alpha)
Stock futures rise as investors monitor Russia-Ukraine war, Fed’s next move (CNBC)
Crippling sanctions aren’t enough — Here’s what needs to be done to stop Putin (CNBC)
Investors should consider these deep value stocks during the market sell-off, Wolfe Research says (CNBC)
Nutrien shares on a tear as Russia's attack stirs fertilizer fears (BNN)
Rihanna's lingerie company weighs IPO at US$3B valuation (BNN)
Biden calls for an end to Russia's preferred trading status (BNN)
Dorel continued to be hampered in Q4 by supply chain constraints, rising costs (BNN)
Mortgage refinancing falls off as rates break above 4%: Black Knight (Seeking Alpha)
PLx Pharma Investment Ideas (VIC)
Single-Family Real Estate (VIC)
Finding value in the rubble (Yet Another Value Blog)
Sinopec: Development In Oil And Gas Exploration Fields (AR Parker)
Tidewater: The Tide Is Turning (Henrik Alex)
Buying Russia (Adventures in Capitalism)
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