Misunderstood Growth Story At Deep Value Price Tag
Near-term catalysts from multiple asset sales, aggressive share repurchase plan and 40% short interest to torque the upside.
I am excited to share today a misunderstood growth story that is trading at a deep value price. There is a lot to like about this company and the setup is compelling:
An activist investor refreshed the board and senior management team.
Best product merchandising seen in multiple years from an experienced executive who helped run this same playbook at Five Below (50% CAGR over a ten year period).
Growth story underpinned by lapping stimulus in 2021 which has given investors a short-term outlook on declining comps over the next two quarters.
Near-term asset sales over the next 12 months will unlock significant value. Proceeds from the asset sales equate to 37% of the current company enterprise value and will be used to aggressively repurchase shares in the open market.
Management has repurchased $182 million worth of shares over the past three years and after Q4 2021 quarter-end increased their share repurchase program by an additional $30 million bringing the total share repurchase program to a current $60 million.
An ultra-clean balance sheet combined with near-term asset sales provide a strong margin of safety and protect the downside at the current basement level valuation.
The company generated significant cash flows during the COVID-19 pandemic and also during the Great Recession which provides a sense of security for investor believing we are headed into a deep recession.
The stock is down over 64% year-to-date and short interest on the stock stands at 37%. The growth story is completely misunderstood as investors are focused on near-term headwinds.