I have written this name up twice in the past twelve months.
The stock has done well since both write-ups.
At the peak we are up 25% or so in less than a year.
The business has done well and just like I was modeling it to do.
Not many people follow the situation so if you can get smart on the company and understand the moving parts, cash flows become easy to model.
Despite the outperformance in a tough market, I think things start to get worse.
Given the runup in the share price I think it is time to get out of the name and wait for things to deteriorate.
If I am right on my forecasts, I think we can buy this company cheap again over the next few quarters.
There is too much risk at this price.
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