Great stuff. I particularly like the part about how much of these things are solutions looking for problems. Last week on Pomp’s pod Aleks Svetski did a pretty solid takedown of the notion that event tickets need to be NFTs on a blockchain - right along that line. Solution looking for a problem.
True story - after GME, I started poking around Reddit for other “potential hidden gems” and landed on a few ticker names on WSB and Penny Stocks. Put ~$500 on these and ended up walking away when value plummeted 80% in a few months. People with self interest to pump those stocks do everything they can to bump them especially by pulling in poor saps like me to buy.
I did that instead of putting money into Lithium and Colbalt ETFs 6 months prior to the last big run. Dumb me.
Time in market >>> timing the market. Duh. But would still be nice to pay some bills, get some nice gifts for the kids, etc with some well-timed investments.
One thing I disagree with you on vehemently is the statement that a good currency would not increase in value. This is contradictory to basic monetary economics and economic history. In history there are several examples of currencies increasing in value and promoting economic growth. One of the best examples is the late 19th century during the gilded aged of America. Prices declined gradually throughout the period and this was a time of rapid economic growth. This was partly due to the metallic based currency standard at the time. Also an example of this would be computers and tvs. Over the decades they have gotten better and cheaper. Has that stopped anyone from buying then. No it has not, it could delay the purchase knowing the next model will be better, but overall, people still buy these items, typically when they need it. The same would be true of a currency that increases in value. People would still buy things even thought their money increases in value because they need those things, like food or shelter or anything else. Its a lot easier to buy something with money that increase in value than it is to barter for it and expect the double coincidences of wants every time you want something. Money solves the issue of the double coincidence of wants by being a generally accepted medium of exchange. In fact having some store of value is a valuable property of money. Its why perishable goods do not make good money. Ice would be terrible because it looses its value after it melts. The monetary economist Dr. George Selgin has talked about money and its properties expensively and even how general deflation matching the productivity rate could be preferable to inflation. Now with all this said, I do not think bitcoin is money in its current state. I could be one day, but currently it is shaping up to bit gold. I just disagree with the statement that says good currency should not increase in value.
Really love this piece. Thank you so much!
Badass ending lol
What I'm hearing is to believe that you are the fool, that way you believe you're getting rug-pulled and are more careful about what you buy into?
Lol doesn't make a difference to me, I just throw money at anything that's been insider traded within the past 5 days
Great stuff. I particularly like the part about how much of these things are solutions looking for problems. Last week on Pomp’s pod Aleks Svetski did a pretty solid takedown of the notion that event tickets need to be NFTs on a blockchain - right along that line. Solution looking for a problem.
What's your thoughts on Series I Savings Bonds paying initial interest rate of 7.12% ?https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm
True story - after GME, I started poking around Reddit for other “potential hidden gems” and landed on a few ticker names on WSB and Penny Stocks. Put ~$500 on these and ended up walking away when value plummeted 80% in a few months. People with self interest to pump those stocks do everything they can to bump them especially by pulling in poor saps like me to buy.
I did that instead of putting money into Lithium and Colbalt ETFs 6 months prior to the last big run. Dumb me.
Time in market >>> timing the market. Duh. But would still be nice to pay some bills, get some nice gifts for the kids, etc with some well-timed investments.
One thing I disagree with you on vehemently is the statement that a good currency would not increase in value. This is contradictory to basic monetary economics and economic history. In history there are several examples of currencies increasing in value and promoting economic growth. One of the best examples is the late 19th century during the gilded aged of America. Prices declined gradually throughout the period and this was a time of rapid economic growth. This was partly due to the metallic based currency standard at the time. Also an example of this would be computers and tvs. Over the decades they have gotten better and cheaper. Has that stopped anyone from buying then. No it has not, it could delay the purchase knowing the next model will be better, but overall, people still buy these items, typically when they need it. The same would be true of a currency that increases in value. People would still buy things even thought their money increases in value because they need those things, like food or shelter or anything else. Its a lot easier to buy something with money that increase in value than it is to barter for it and expect the double coincidences of wants every time you want something. Money solves the issue of the double coincidence of wants by being a generally accepted medium of exchange. In fact having some store of value is a valuable property of money. Its why perishable goods do not make good money. Ice would be terrible because it looses its value after it melts. The monetary economist Dr. George Selgin has talked about money and its properties expensively and even how general deflation matching the productivity rate could be preferable to inflation. Now with all this said, I do not think bitcoin is money in its current state. I could be one day, but currently it is shaping up to bit gold. I just disagree with the statement that says good currency should not increase in value.